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Quantitative Risk Analysis

Quantitative Risk Analysis

Strategic planning and mine design is a complex process.
This complexity arises from the large range of variables that need to be considered in order to maximise the value of a mining operation with any confidence.
Despite extensive data gathering exercises primarily focussed on the deposit, many of the inputs into an evaluation model are either unknown or limited (i.e. averaged values) even when the project is at an advanced stage.
This typically results in a sequential evaluation process and averaged or factored inputs being applied to the mining operation, with little or no consideration given to the inherent risks associated with such an approach. 

Advanced mathematical and simulation (Monte Carlo) techniques have recently found application in forecasting input operational and financial data (i.e. grades, prices, quality and operating costs, etc.) to provide probabilistic estimates of key project indicators. The potential benefits of these techniques depend heavily on the level of integration of the input variables with the mine plan and design.
The evaluation model needs to contain all relevant information for each stage in the mining process (e.g. resource/reserve estimation, mining, processing, etc.), with associated confidence of limits applied to the key inputs.

At ROMPEV we use advanced quantitative risk analysis to assess and model project risk and potential with any confidence
ROMPEV‘s Quantitative Risk Analysis services covers:

  • Identifying and quantifying project sources of uncertainty
  • Risk assessment, measurement and management
  • Value at risk
  • Upside/downside potential
  • Profit and loss risk analysis